Investors are betting on another rate hike in May
- 11 April 2023
- Posted by: Federica Montella
- Categories: eToro CopyTrader, Investing
Wall Street finished mixed yesterday
Monday has been a positive day for the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq closed slightly negative.
The S&P 500 finished at +0.1%, the Nasdaq ended the trading session at -0.03% and the Dow Jones closed at +0.3%.
Yesterday, was the first occasion for traders to react to the latest data about the US labour market because the market has been closed during the Easter holidays.
The investors’ sentiment is Greed, as indicated in the graph below:
Sentiment indicator – Fear & Greed Index
The market sentiment is 61, in “Greed” mode. Last week the sentiment was Neutral, so it is improving.
Another rate hike is expected
Last Friday, the US Labour Department released the latest data about the job market for March.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data have shown an increase of 236,000 new job positions last month, less than the previous month and less than the economist’s predictions.
The US Unemployment Rate for March has also been published last Friday and it was 3.5%, 0.1% down from the previous reading.
The labour market has started to slow down, based on the recent data, but that is not enough for the investors that are now betting on another interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve to fight inflation which is also caused by the strong job market.
As shown in the graph below 66.4% of traders are expecting another rate hike of 0.25% at the next Fed meeting on 3 May.
The remaining 33.6% of investors are forecasting a no-rate increase at the next FOMC.
What to watch today
Today, there is no important data to watch and the market should not be volatile because everyone is expecting the release of the consumer inflation data tomorrow and the producer price inflation on Thursday.
The Fed’s final decision regarding the next monetary policy action will be, however, influenced by the above data.
Portfolio update
I remain neutral and cautious about the stock market since the trend is not clearly defined.
I hold long and short stock positions and aim to profit regardless of the market direction.
If you are already copying my portfolio, please keep the copy open.
If you are thinking of copying me, now could be the right time, if you can invest for the long term (years).
Remember to copy the open trades to optimize the copy.
Remember to set the stop loss on the copy at the minimum level, so you don’t get stopped if there is a correction.
Thank you, everyone. Have a nice day!
Steps to follow to copy my portfolio automatically:
1. Create an eToro account here: https://federicamontella.com/go/etoro/
2. Verify your account and make a deposit of at least 200 USD (you can deposit in any currency, like GBP and EUR)
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4. Start the copy (copy open trades and set the lowest stop loss possible, to allow some movement)
5. Enjoy, it’s all automatic. You will make passive income 24/7
Let me know if you have any questions.
Federica Montella
eToro Popular Investor
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